Hurricane Dorian strengthened again last night, with maximum sustained winds now at 115 miles per hour. The storm is now a Category 3 Major Hurricane again. Widespread hazardous weather is expected in the Carolinas today with strong wind gusts, torrential rain and dangerous storm surge likely. Tornadoes are also expected as rain bands crash ashore.
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Hurricane Dorian strengthened to a Category 5 storm this morning, with maximum sustained winds of 175 miles per hour. The storm is tracking west-northwest, on a collision course with Great Abaco Island in the Northern Bahamas. Devastating damage is expected to occur on the island later today.
Update 10:00am: The National Hurricane Center says that Hurricane Dorian has strengthened again with maximum sustained winds now 175mph.
Dorian is then expected to continue northwestward before turning north while positioned just off the Florida coastline. Various forecast models disagree on exactly where that northerly turn will occur, with obvious implications for Floridas eastern shoreline. Eventually, it will be positioned off the Southeast US Coast, and is expected to turn out to sea.
Great Abaco Island is located in the far northeastern Bahamas, to the northeast of Nassua and Freeport. The Island is home to several township and cays – particularly Marsh Harbour, Coopers Town and Crown Haven.
The National Hurricane Center forecasts Dorian to track directly over the island, coming ashore just north of Marsh Harbour. 160 mile per hour winds and a tremendous storm surge are likely to bring catastrophic damage to the northern part of the island. Widespread flooding is also likely.
As of Sunday morning, a small handful of storm chasers and some residents were still on the island. Videos from Elbow Cay, a small island off the Great Abaco Island shores, showed damaging wind gusts and torrential rains had already begun.
Conditions are expected to continue to worsen later today and tonight as the Category 5 storm makes its approach. It is difficult to imagine the exact extent of damage that is likely to be observed there, but it is likely to be devastating for local residents with widespread loss of property, wildlife, and the potential for permanent changes to the landmass.
The track of Hurricane Dorian has been an extremely difficult and complex forecast over the past few days. Forecast model guidance has struggled with finite details that are helping to determine the systems track, including storm systems around the hurricane itself.
A ridge to the north of the storm in the Western Atlantic Ocean has been particularly difficult for models to handle. This ridge is responsible for steering the storm into the Bahamas and toward Florida, but is eventually expected to weaken.
Just 24 hours ago, all model guidance suddenly jumped to agreement that the system would slide east of Florida, with the ridge to the north of Dorian weakening. But in the 24 hours since, guidance has begun trending back westward with a slightly stronger ridge as the storm moves westward later today.
The ECMWF and GFS models now bring the storm precariously close to the Eastern Florida coastline, while the HWRF model makes landfall north of Cape Canaveral. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center still keeps the center of Dorian offshore.
While an offshore track is still favored, residents of Florida are encouraged to remain on high alert as the track of Dorian is still subject to change over the next 12 to 24 hours. Impacts are still a distinct possibility late this weekend and early next week.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for parts of the Southeast Florida coastline through early this week. The system is then likely to turn northward, making a very close approach with parts of Georgia and the Carolinas before heading out to sea.
Stay tuned throughout the day today as we continue to provide updates on Dorian and its path through the Bahamas and toward Florida.
Hurricane Dorian strengthened again this morning, with maximum sustained winds now 110 miles per hour. The storm is moving slowly northwestward and is expected to continue to move toward the Bahamas today. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Dorian to become a powerful major hurricane over the next 12 to 24 hours as it moves towards the Bahamas and the Florida coastline.
The storm is expected to curve westward this weekend and slow down considerably, moving into atmospheric conditions favorable for strengthening. Very warm waters near the Bahamas combined with low atmospheric wind shear are expected to allow the system to intensify.
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Hurricane Dorian is a Category 1 hurricane this morning, with maximum sustained winds of 85 miles per hour. After strengthening yesterday, the storms intensity has leveled off a bit thanks to the ingestion of dry air. But the National Hurricane Center suggests that Dorian will continue to strengthen again today, with the expectation that the system will become a Major Hurricane by Friday afternoon.
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