John Homenuk

Some storms possible on Wednesday, tropical system offshore

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The National Hurricane Center designated Tropical Depression Six on Monday, and it is expected to be upgraded to a Tropical Storm by the morning hours of Tuesday. The system will pass well east of the area this week, but higher swells and surf are possible on area beaches.

Calm and pleasant weather is generally expected to continue today, with high temperatures in the 70’s and low humidity. Change is in the air, however, with a frontal system approaching from the west. By Wednesday, the opportunity for showers and storms will increase again.

The best chance will likely come later Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, with a front approaching the area. This is a transient, relatively weak front and it won’t have much instability to work with. In other words, don’t expect any intense thunderstorms. Instead, a few scattered storms are likely – especially over the Interior and in New England.

Here are the latest highlights and links:

  • Calm weather will continue today, with low humidity and comfortable temperatures, albeit several degrees warmer than this weekend.
  • A tropical system, perhaps Tropical Storm Erin by this morning, will meander well offshore this week. This storm may produced enhanced swells, surf, and rip current risk at area beaches later this week.
  • Showers and thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday evening. Scattered in nature and generally non-severe, these shouldn’t be a big trouble maker.
  • The weather improves again this weekend and into the early part of next week, but trends a bit warmer (seasonable is the best way to put it).
  • Eyes will continue to be on Tropical Storm Dorian, which may or may not make a move at the Bahamas later this week and weekend. Here’s our latest briefing on that system.
John Homenuk

Dorian tracking northwest, future remains uncertain

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Tropical Storm Dorian continued her northwestward trek today, marching toward the Lesser Antilles in the Tropical Atlantic. The system has maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour, a solid Tropical Storm. The National Hurricane Center forecasts the storm to reach Hurricane status by 8pm on Tuesday.

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John Homenuk

Hurricane Michael a Category 4, still strengthening this morning

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Update 8:15am: The National Hurricane Center says that Michael has strengthened again this morning, with maximum sustained winds now 145mph.

Hurricane Michael strengthened again overnight, and is now approaching the Florida Gulf Coast as a life-threatening Category Four hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 145mph.  The National Hurricane Center is now suggesting that the storm will make landfall as a Category Four hurricane with 145 mph sustained winds. No hurricane has ever hit the Florida Panhandle at such a strength. Records date back to 1851.

The strengthening of the storm overnight was feared by many forecasters and meteorologists as early as Tuesday afternoon, when the storm system began to appear more symmetric and approach warmer waters and lower shear. These conditions tend to promote increased organization and strength of tropical systems. The storm was still strengthening as of this morning, with a minimum central pressure down to 937hPa.

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John Homenuk

Hurricane Michael strengthens, aims toward Florida Gulf Coast

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Hurricane Michael strengthened again this morning, reaching a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale with maximum sustained winds of 110mph. The storm also deepened to 965hPa as it continues to organize itself in the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The intensifying storm is predicted to make landfall on Wednesday as a Category 3 Major Hurricane, the most substantial hurricane threat for the Florida Gulf Coast in over a decade.

The National Hurricane Center suggests that Hurricane Michael will continue strengthening today as it encounters an increasingly favorable atmospheric environment. Lower wind shear and warmer waters of the Gulf of Mexico will promote increasing storm structure and strengthening wind speeds. Read more